> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://docs.jup.ag/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.
# How Predict Works
> Detailed mechanics of Jupiter Prediction Markets: events, contracts, orders, fees, settlement, and the Degen mode.
This page covers the detailed mechanics of Jupiter Predict. For a high-level introduction, see the [Overview](/user-docs/trade/predict).
## Events and Markets
An **event** is a real-world occurrence with a determinable outcome. For example: "Republican Presidential Nominee 2028" or "UEFA Champions League Winner."
Each event contains one or more **markets**. Each market represents a specific outcome within the event and is usually binary: YES or NO.
For example, an election event can contain separate markets for several candidates. Each candidate market trades independently. You can buy YES on one candidate without taking a position on any other candidate.
### Multi-Outcome Events
Events with many possible outcomes are displayed with the top outcomes visible by default. Click **Show More** to drill down and see additional sub-markets.
The probabilities across all sub-markets within a multi-outcome event do not always sum to exactly 100%. Each sub-market can have its own liquidity, spread, and price history.
### Sports Match Markets
A single sports match can carry several market types, grouped on one event page. On a football match, for example:
* **To Advance**: which team goes through to the next round. Runs to the full result, including extra time, penalties, or an official ruling, as set out in the market rules.
* **Moneyline**: the three-way regulation-time result (either team or the draw), each side tradeable YES or NO. The order buttons show the payout per contract (e.g. "\$1 pays 2.46").
* **Both Teams to Score**: yes or no.
* **Double Chance**: cover two of the three regulation-time outcomes in a single position.
* **Spreads**: back a team at a goal handicap, with a selectable line (e.g. 0, 0.5, 1).
* **Totals**: over or under on total goals, with a selectable line (e.g. 2, 2.5, 3).
* **Odd / Even** and **Total Goals ranges** (e.g. 0-1, 2-3, 4-6, 7+).
* **Exact Score**: see [Special Markets](#special-markets).
Reading these markets:
* **REG TIME vs FULL TIME badges**: REG TIME markets settle on the first 90 minutes plus stoppage time. FULL TIME markets settle on the final outcome, including extra time and penalties (To Advance is a FULL TIME market). The exact treatment is always in the market's rules summary.
* **Push rules are displayed on the market**: on integer Spreads and Totals lines, a push (the spread-adjusted score is level, or the final total equals the line) resolves as a **refund** of the stake. The applicable rule is shown on each market group (e.g. "Draw = refund", "Exactly 2 = refund"). Other market types (Double Chance, Odd / Even, Exact Score) do not use lines and have no push outcome.
* **No fees label**: the sportsbook-style groups (Double Chance, Spreads, Totals, Odd / Even, Total Goals ranges, Exact Score) currently charge no trading fees. These are [ticket markets](#special-markets): market orders only, held to settlement with no early sell.
Esports events can also carry several market types per match, grouped by game within a series (e.g. Game 3 of a best-of-3), with live scores shown on the event card.
Tennis matches carry match, set, and game markets, with dedicated **Total Sets** and **Total Games** sections.
### Comments
Each event page includes a comments section: you can post comments on an event, like other traders' comments, and delete your own.
### Market States
A market moves through several states from creation to settlement:
The market is visible but trading has not started yet. The UI may show a countdown.
The market is actively trading. Buy and sell actions are available when liquidity and routing support them.
Trading has stopped. The market is waiting for the result to be determined and recorded.
The result is final. Profile shows claim, refund, automatic, lost, or final status.
## Contracts
A **contract** is a financial claim tied to one side of one market.
* A winning contract pays **\$1 worth of the market's settlement asset**.
* A losing contract pays **\$0** and expires worthless.
* Some markets can resolve to a refund or draw outcome if the market rules require it.
Contract prices usually range from **\$0.01 to \$0.99**. The price reflects the current market-implied probability for that side. A YES contract at \$0.65 means traders are currently paying about 65 cents for the YES side.
### Funding and Settlement Assets
Predict uses dollar-pegged assets for trading and settlement. The exact funding token can depend on the market and route. In some flows, Jupiter may route your input into the market's settlement asset before the order is placed.
The order panel shows the token you pay with and, once you enter an amount, the quote details: size, number of contracts, expected payout, and any estimated refund. Trading fees are included in the quote rather than shown as a separate line; see [Fee Structure](#fee-structure) for how they are calculated.
### Spread
Each market has a **bid price** and an **ask price**:
* The **ask** is what you pay when buying.
* The **bid** is what you receive when selling.
The difference is the spread. Entering and exiting a position can cost money even if the market price has not moved.
## Order Types
Market orders are the main live order type on Predict. A market order attempts to execute at the best available price for the selected side.
* The order quote is based on current price and liquidity.
* If price or liquidity changes before execution, the order may fail or partially fill.
* If less than the full amount executes, unused funds are returned automatically.
* Fees are charged only on the executed portion.
Limit orders let you set a target price and wait for a match.
* Available on **Polymarket-sourced markets only**, and only as **limit buys**. Limit sells are disabled.
* You can cancel an open limit order before it is matched.
* Jupiter Forecast markets and sports ticket markets are market-order only. A Limit tab may still appear on the order form there, but it is disabled.
### Execution Flow
Predict abstracts away most of the execution machinery. In normal use, you only sign the transaction shown in your wallet.
The app checks the selected market route and estimates price, contracts, fees, and payout.
You review the quote and sign the transaction in your wallet.
Jupiter validates the trade and attempts to execute it through the selected route or market integration.
If the trade executes, your position appears in Profile. If it cannot execute, or only partially executes, unused funds are returned automatically.
This process can involve on-chain accounts, route execution, keepers, and market integrations behind the scenes. You do not need to manage those pieces manually.
## Position Management
A **position** represents your holdings in a specific market side.
### Position Data
Your Profile can show the following for each position:
| Field | Description |
| ----------------- | -------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| Event | The event and market name |
| Size | Number of contracts held |
| Value | Current estimated market value |
| Avg. Price | Average price paid per contract |
| Mark Price | Current reference price per contract |
| PnL | Unrealised profit or loss, with fee display controls where available |
| Payout if right | Estimated payout if your side wins |
| Settlement status | Whether the market is open, closed, claimable, refunded, or settled |
### Closing a Position
You can try to close a position before settlement by clicking **Close**, or **Close All** to exit all eligible positions.
* Closes execute at the current bid, so the spread matters.
* You can close a position **partially or in full**: pick a percentage preset (25%, 50%, 75%, or Max) or enter the number of contracts to sell.
* A close can fail if the market is closed, liquidity is too low, or the route is temporarily unavailable.
### When You Can Close a Position
Whether you can close depends on the market's current state:
| Market state | Can you close? | Notes |
| ------------------ | -------------- | ---------------------------------------------------------------- |
| Open (Live) | Usually | Close attempts sell at the current bid if liquidity is available |
| Closed | No | Trading has stopped. Wait for settlement |
| Settled (you won) | No | Claim the payout instead |
| Settled (refund) | No | Refund is processed on-chain and reflected in Profile |
| Settled (you lost) | No | The position is final and no action is needed |
Low liquidity can make a position difficult or impossible to close even while the market is open. If a position looks stuck for an unusually long time, raise a ticket via [Discord](https://discord.gg/jup). Some market types, such as [special markets](#special-markets), cannot be closed at all and must be held to resolution.
### Profile Tabs
Your Profile page has three main tabs:
* **Positions**: active positions and claimable or refundable outcomes.
* **Open Orders**: pending orders when that flow is available.
* **History**: completed trades, settlements, claims, and refunds.
A period filter lets you narrow Positions, Open Orders, History, and the portfolio summary to a chosen time window. The portfolio summary also includes a PnL chart showing your profit and loss over time.
## Market Sources and Integrations
Jupiter Predict can surface markets from external prediction market providers and Jupiter-supported market integrations. Browse markets are currently sourced from Polymarket, alongside short-duration crypto markets and other Jupiter-supported integrations.
### What This Means for Users
* **Market availability**: not every market from every source is available on Jupiter.
* **Action availability**: some markets may be view-only, closed, unavailable in your region, or temporarily unavailable for buys or sells.
* **Resolution rules**: each market follows its own published rules. Read the rules summary before trading.
* **Disputes**: if a source market has a dispute or delayed resolution process, Jupiter follows the final result from that source or integration.
* **Settlement**: some market routes record eligible results on-chain. Other integrations may settle through their own process and reflect status in Profile.
### Order Behaviour by Market Source
| Market source | Orders | Early sell | Limits and fees |
| --------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------- | ----------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| Polymarket-sourced markets | Market orders + limit buys (limit sells disabled) | Yes, at the current bid | \$5 minimum order; standard trading fees |
| Jupiter Forecast markets (crypto) | Market orders only | Yes, via **Close** | \$5 minimum, \$1,000 maximum per order; winnings auto-credited |
| Jupiter Forecast markets (stocks) | Market orders only | Yes, via **Close** | No trading fees; tradable during US market hours only; terms acknowledgement required |
| Sports ticket markets | Market orders only | No, held to settlement | \$4 minimum, \$3,000 maximum per ticket; currently no trading fees |
### Special Markets
During major sporting events, Predict lists sportsbook-style **ticket markets** on individual matches: Double Chance, Spreads, Totals, Odd / Even, Total Goals ranges, and Exact Score (see [Sports Match Markets](#sports-match-markets)).
Ticket markets work differently from standard Browse markets:
* **No early sell.** Once you buy a ticket, you hold it until the market resolves and pays out at settlement. There is no orderbook and no early exit.
* **Market orders only.** A Limit tab may appear on the form but is disabled on these markets.
* **Each purchase is a separate ticket.** Buying the same market more than once creates multiple independent positions rather than adding to one.
* **A separate sportsbook provider sets the odds**, so they can differ from similar markets elsewhere.
* **Stake limits**: minimum **\$4** and maximum **\$3,000** per ticket. The \$5 minimum order applies to the normal order path (Polymarket and Jupiter Forecast markets), not to tickets.
* **Currently no trading fees** on ticket markets.
Because ticket positions cannot be sold, your funds stay committed until the market resolves, regardless of how the odds move in the meantime.
## Degen Mode
Degen is a section within Jupiter Predict focused on short-duration Up or Down price markets. It has two tabs: **Crypto** and **Stocks**.
### How It Works
Each Degen market asks whether a token's price will move **Up** or **Down** from a reference price over a defined window.
* The available assets and windows can change.
* The reference price is shown on the market card.
* The current price updates while the market is live.
* If the final price is above the reference, **Up** wins.
* If the final price is below the reference, **Down** wins.
* The market rules determine any edge cases, such as ties or unavailable price data.
Degen markets may use a different route from standard Browse markets, but the basic wallet flow is the same: review the quote, sign, and monitor the position. Settlement actions can vary by route: Profile shows whether the outcome is automatic, claimable, refundable, or final.
### Jupiter Forecast Markets
Some Degen markets carry a **Jupiter Forecast** label. These are custom short-duration markets operated through a Jupiter market integration, over **5-minute** and **15-minute** windows, bought with USDC. They currently cover BTC Up or Down in the **Crypto** tab and SPCX (SpaceX) Up or Down in the **Stocks** tab.
Forecast markets behave like other Degen markets, with two specifics set out in each market's rules summary:
* **Resolution source**: the outcome is determined from the Chainlink data stream named in the rules (for BTC, the BTC/USD stream), not from other price sources or spot markets. If the final price is **greater than or equal to** the starting price, the market resolves to **Up**; otherwise it resolves to **Down**.
* **Near-instant settlement**: winnings are credited to your wallet automatically shortly after the window closes. There is nothing to claim.
* **Order limits**: minimum \$5 and maximum \$1,000 per order.
* **Windows open as they go live**: upcoming windows are shown but are not tradable until the window is live. A short daily maintenance period, shown in the interface, makes these markets briefly unavailable each day.
* **Stock markets follow US market hours**: SPCX markets are tradable during the US market session only. Outside those hours, the nearest past or upcoming event is still displayed but cannot be traded. You must acknowledge the terms and conditions before trading a stock market for the first time.
## Fee Structure
Fees are charged only on executed trades: buying or selling contracts. Fees are included in the quoted amounts shown before you sign, rather than displayed as a separate line.
* Fees are charged in whichever mint is used to purchase the contracts.
* Fees are always rounded up to the nearest cent.
* There are no fees when claiming payouts.
* Orders that do not fill pay no trading fee until they execute.
### Browse Market Fees
For Browse markets sourced from Polymarket, the trading fee has two components: where Polymarket charges a fee on a market, Jupiter charges an additional fee equal to the Polymarket fee. The total trading fee you pay is twice the Polymarket fee.
The fee size depends on three factors:
* **Contract price**: the price you pay per contract.
* **Number of contracts**: fees scale with the size of the trade.
* **Outcome uncertainty**: trades priced closer to \$0.50 are more uncertain, so fees are slightly higher. Trades priced closer to \$0.00 or \$1.00 are more certain, so fees are lower.
The amounts below are the total trading fee you pay, with the Jupiter fee already included.
| Price per Contract | Fee (1 Contract) | Fee (100 Contracts) |
| ------------------ | ---------------- | ------------------- |
| \$0.01 | \$0.01 | \$0.07 |
| \$0.05 | \$0.01 | \$0.34 |
| \$0.10 | \$0.01 | \$0.63 |
| \$0.15 | \$0.01 | \$0.90 |
| \$0.20 | \$0.02 | \$1.12 |
| \$0.25 | \$0.02 | \$1.32 |
| \$0.30 | \$0.02 | \$1.47 |
| \$0.35 | \$0.02 | \$1.60 |
| \$0.40 | \$0.02 | \$1.68 |
For example, buying 100 contracts at \$0.25 costs \$25.00 in total, with a trading fee of \$1.32.
This structure keeps fees low for high-confidence outcomes, scales fairly with trade size, and encourages liquidity by not charging orders that are waiting to fill.
### Other Routes and Costs
Markets that use other routes can include additional or different fees:
| Fee type | What it covers |
| ------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Route fee | Fees from swap or liquidity routes used by a specific market |
| Solana network cost | Transaction fees and account rent paid in SOL |
Degen markets may use a different route from standard Browse markets, so the Polymarket fee table above does not necessarily apply to them. The order quote always shows the fees for the specific market and route before you sign.
### When Fees Are Not Charged
* If an order does not execute, trading fees are not charged.
* If an order partially executes, fees apply only to the executed portion.
* Claims and refunds do not charge Predict trading fees, though Solana network fees may still apply.
## Settlement Process
Settlement turns a closed market into a final result. Some market routes record an on-chain result, while other routes may settle through their own integration. Most markets settle to YES or NO, but refund and draw outcomes are possible when the rules require them.
Trading stops at the market's scheduled close time or when the source market stops accepting trades.
The market source or integration determines the result according to the market rules.
For some market routes, Jupiter records eligible results on-chain. Other integrations may settle through their own route and update Profile status.
Your position is marked as claimable, refundable, automatically settled, lost, or otherwise final.
If Profile shows **Claim** or a refund action, follow the prompt. When you have claimable positions, a **Claim All** button appears in the Positions tab and claims them all at once. Some outcomes are processed automatically. Losing positions need no action.
### Resolved vs. Claimed
These are separate states:
* **Resolved** means the market result has been finalized and Profile has settlement status. For some market routes, this includes an on-chain result.
* **Claimed** means a winning payout has been credited to your wallet.
* **Refunded** means an eligible refund has been credited to your wallet.
### Pending vs. Resolved
A market can be resolved by its source before it appears settled on Jupiter. This is expected during the relay and settlement update process. Your Profile updates once final status is available.
### When a Market Does Not Resolve as Expected
Most markets settle after their source result is available, but timing is not guaranteed.
Possible reasons for a delay:
* The real-world event has not produced a clear outcome.
* The market source is waiting for an authoritative result.
* A provider, route, or settlement issue needs investigation.
While a market is closed and waiting for settlement, you cannot close the position. If a market remains unresolved for an unusually long time, raise a ticket via [Discord](https://discord.gg/jup).
### Cancelled, Voided, or Refunded Markets
If a market is cancelled, voided, or resolved as refundable, eligible positions can receive a refund after final settlement status is available.
Eligible refunds are processed on-chain and reflected in Profile. Profile shows the refund status and any available action. If the status does not update after the market has clearly resolved as refundable, contact support via [Discord](https://discord.gg/jup).
## Leaderboard
The Leaderboard is a public ranking of traders on Jupiter Predict.
* **Metrics**: PnL, Volume, and Win Rate
* **Time filters**: All Time, Weekly, and Monthly
* **Global stats**: total platform volume and total number of predictions
Traders are identified by truncated wallet address. The Leaderboard is informational and does not affect trading.
## On-Chain Costs
Jupiter Predict runs on Solana. Using it requires a small SOL balance for:
* **Transaction fees**: paid when you sign transactions.
* **Account rent**: temporary deposits required for some on-chain accounts.
Rent is recovered automatically when eligible accounts are closed. These are standard Solana network costs and are separate from Predict trading fees.